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Call George Lorimer at 619-846-1244
The outlook for 2024 is lower mortgage rates, leading to an increase in buyer demand and an increase in inventory.
Zillow, Realtor.com, and Redfin are predicting a price increase of between 7%-11% on a $1,000,000 home that is $70,000 to $110,000 appreciation.
You may be thinking that you'll wait until the mortgage rates drop, but the problem with that is once mortgage rates drop, the prices will go up because of an increase in buyer competition.
Rates have dropped from 8% in October to 6.5% today and are trending lower. Also, we have programs to get you loans starting in the 4.5% range.
Call George Lorimer today at 619-846-1244.
The most recent market update talks about how under $1,5 million homes are selling quickly, and over $1.5 million, the market is a lot slower. Longer market times and less buyer demand.
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Active Listings
The active inventory dropped by another 3% in the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory plunged by 99 homes in the past two weeks, down 3%, and now sits at 2,898, its largest drop since March. San Diego County is deep within the Holiday Market. December is when the fewest homeowners come onto the market and opt to sell their homes. It is also when many unsuccessful sellers pull their homes off the market to enjoy the holidays, ultimately postponing their real estate desires for a different time. Expect the inventory to plunge through the end of this year.
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Last year, the inventory was 3,672 homes, 27% higher, or 774 more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 through 2019) is 5,905, an additional 3,007 homes, or 104% extra, more than double where it stands today.
Homeowners continue to “kick back” in their homes, unwilling to move due to their current underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. For November, 2,044 new sellers entered the market in San Diego County, 1,279 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 38% less. The kick back trend deepened in the second half of 2022. Year-over-year comparisons are much more relevant today. Last year, there were 2,047 new sellers, nearly identical to today. It will be much easier to isolate when more sellers finally enter the fray.
Demand
Demand dropped by another 2% in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased from 1,338 to 1,305 in the past couple of weeks, down 33 pending sales, or 2%, its lowest December level since tracking began in 2012. Demand is tracking last year’s low anemic levels but is not plunging like it typically does at the end of the year. This is because current demand readings are at inherent levels. There are always buyers willing to purchase in every market, regardless of the time of year. Expect demand to fall to its lowest level upon ringing in 2024. Demand will quickly rise starting in mid-January, the Winter Market.
Last year, demand was at 1,445, 11% higher than today, or an extra 140 pending sales. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,266 pending sales, 74% more than today, or an additional 961.
With supply and demand falling at similar rates, the Expected Market Time (the number of days to sell all San Diego County listings at the current buying pace) remained unchanged at 67 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, the Expected Market Time was 76 days, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID was 80 days, also slower than today.
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